Probability method Confidence interval method
P(Mvotes<Svotes) M loses P(Mvotes>Svotes) M wins Sample size Margin of error, mean 49%, confidence level 95% Margin of error, mean 43%, confidence level 95%
0.080 0.920 500 0.044 0.043
0.062 0.938 600 0.040 0.040
0.050 0.950 700 0.037 0.037
0.040 0.960 800 0.035 0.034
0.025 0.975 963 0.032 0.031
0.023 0.977 1,000 0.031 0.031
0.020 0.980 1,067 0.030 0.030
0.006 0.994 1,500 0.025 0.025
0.002 0.998 2,000 0.022 0.022
0.0010 0.999 2,400 0.020 0.020
0.0008 0.9992 2,500 0.020 0.019