18 Months prior			15 Months prior
Prob>F		0.009			0.005
R2		0.36			0.39
Adjusted R2		0.29			0.32
	Coef.	Std. Err.	t	Coef.	Std. Err.	t
President’s overall approval	1.320	0.610	2.160	1.531	0.603	2.540
Vote share of president’s party in prior election	0.925	0.706	1.310	1.228	0.702	1.750
Overall approval x past performance	–0.026	0.012	–2.100	–0.031	0.012	–2.510
Constant	–48.334	34.738	–1.390	–61.560	34.382	–1.790
		12 Months prior			9 Months prior
Prob>F		0.012			0.036
R2		0.35			0.28
Adjusted R2		0.27			0.20
	Coef.	Std. Err.	t	Coef.	Std. Err.	t
President’s overall approval	1.340	0.655	2.040	1.013	0.777	1.300
Vote share of president’s party in prior election	0.998	0.726	1.380	0.640	0.877	0.730
Overall approval x past performance	–0.027	0.013	–2.070	–0.021	0.016	–1.300
Constant	–48.544	35.815	–1.360	–31.551	42.871	–0.740
		6 Months prior			3 Months prior
Prob>F		0.039			0.088
R2		0.28			0.25
Adjusted R2		0.19			0.15
	Coef.	Std. Err.	t	Coef.	Std. Err.	t
President’s overall approval	0.838	0.741	1.130	0.298	0.797	0.370
Vote share of president’s party in prior election	0.423	0.794	0.530	–0.197	0.809	–0.240
Overall approval x past performance	–0.017	0.015	–1.160	–0.006	0.016	–0.350
Constant	–19.788	38.992	–0.510	8.728	39.995	0.220