Likelihood of Switching
Political Parties in the
Next Five Years
Factor Identified as Very Important Reason fear Leaving the
Republican Party
President
Bush
Iraq
War
GOP
Environmental
Positions
GOP Tax
and Spending
Positions
GOP Foreign
Policy
Positions
Very Likely (9%) 30% 26% 16% 29% 29%
Somewhat Likely 13%) 52% 41% 42% 38% 38%
Not to Likely (22%) 80% 65% 46% 47% 49%
Not Likely at All (37%) 81% 63% 57% 49% 60%
Not Sure/Refused 19%) 60% 47% 37% 41% 45%